SRINAGAR: Except for higher reaches, Jammu and Kashmir has remained largely snowless during Chilai Kalan—the Valley’s harshest 40-day winter period, traditionally marked by peak snowfall—recording an alarming 96 per cent rainfall deficit in the first half of January.
According to the Director of the Meteorological Department (MeT), Kashmir, Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, the region witnessed an overall 96 per cent rainfall deficiency from January 1 to 14, 2026.
MeT data shows that Srinagar, Budgam and Shopian districts in the Valley, along with Udhampur, Samba, Doda and Ramban districts in the Jammu region, recorded 100 per cent rainfall deficiency, receiving no rainfall during the period.
Kulgam, Pulwama and Bandipora districts in the Valley, and Kishtwar district in the Jammu region, reported rainfall deficits close to 99 per cent.
South Kashmir’s Anantnag district registered a 93 per cent deficit, recording just 1.7 mm of rainfall against a normal of 24.5 mm.
Baramulla recorded a 91 per cent deficit, while Kupwara witnessed a 97 per cent deficit, receiving only 0.8 mm of rainfall compared to the normal 27.4 mm.
Jammu district also recorded a 91 per cent rainfall deficit, receiving 1.9 mm against the normal 20.5 mm.
Border district Kathua reported a 97 per cent deficit, while Reasi recorded a 96 per cent shortfall.
Meanwhile, Poonch and Rajouri districts received relatively higher precipitation but still recorded a 60 per cent rainfall deficit, with 8.3 mm and 7.7 mm of rainfall, respectively.
Earlier, Jammu and Kashmir had experienced an 86 per cent rainfall deficit between November 1 and December 9, 2025, following a prolonged dry spell.
According to the weather expert, J&K should have received an average of 43.1 mm of rainfall between November 1 and December 9 but it only received 6.1 mm rainfall, marking a sharp 86 per cent rainfall deficit.
The shortfall was widespread across 20 districts of J&K, with Srinagar recording an 83.3 per cent deficit while Kathua saw a complete 100 per cent rainfall shortfall. The rainfall deficit was 93.5 per cent in Rajouri, 91.4 per cent in Poonch, 90.5 per cent each in Shopian and Kulgam, 90.2 per cent in Doda, 88 per cent in Ganderbal, 87.7 per cent in Baramulla, 81.5 per cent in Bandipora, 77.5 per cent in Budgam, 77.4 per cent in Kupwara and 60.7 per cent in Pulwama.
The plains, including Srinagar, have not received any snowfall this winter and Chilai Kalan, while the upper reaches, including tourist resorts of Gulmarg and Sonamarg, have received a few spells of snowfall.
Due to rainfall deficit, the water bodies in the Valley are drying up.
Kashmir is presently in the grip of the harshest winter period of Chilai Kalan, which starts on December 21 and ends on January 31.
An elderly resident, Abdul Samad, termed snowless Chilai Kalan as a fallout of climate change.
“During our childhood and youth days, the Valley used to witness very heavy snowfall during the winter months, especially Chilai Kalan. But now we are witnessing dry Chilai Kalan with colder nights and sunny days,” he said.
Director, MeT Kashmir, Dr Mukhtar, said a Western Disturbance is likely to hit Jammu and Kashmir, and there may be at least two spells of snowfall.
“There are maximum chances of rainfall in plains, including Srinagar, and there is also a probability of snowfall on January 24 evening or January 25 morning. There is a possibility of snowfall in south Kashmir and north Kashmir from January 22 evening,” he said.